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M3 Strategies surveyed 128 likely voters in Wisconsin’s 86 House district from June 12 – 14th. The survey has a margin of error of 8.66% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of voters likely to participate in the August 2024 Republican Primary based on a combination of (1) primary voting history, (2) modeled party affiliation, and (3) self-identification of voting intentions. We only included the subset of respondents who intend to vote in the August Republican Primary. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.


  • If the Republican primary for 86th State Assemblyman were held today, Assemblyman John Spiros would win with 64% of the vote.

  • Both candidates are well-known, well-liked, and have a base of strong supporters. However, Assemblyman Spiros’ 4:1 favorable ratio puts him in a much stronger position than Assemblywoman Rozar’s 2:1 ratio.

    o 63% of voters have a favorable view of Assemblyman Spiros, pointing to the strength of his position less than 60 days before Election Day.

  • Republican Primary voters say their State Assemblyman’s top priorities should be immigration control and border security (18%) and cost of living/inflation (18%).



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