via Florida Politics
Aug 28, 2024
M3 Strategies called the winner of a Republican Primary in House District 72, and landed about a percentage point off from his final vote share. Based on a poll of early and mail-in voters, the firm predicted that Kimley-Horn shareholder Bill Conerly would win with 30% of the vote. Results show Conerly took the nomination with 31% support.
“We did really well with our proof concept,” said M3 Strategies partner Matthew Podgorski.
The firm decided to do a poll in the open House race about four weeks out from the election, which also showed Conerly leading. But Podgorski hopes the exit poll done immediately before the Primary Day shows the predictive power of its polling.
Polls are snapshots, after all, and events can change the dynamic of a race within weeks. But Podgorski said the exit polling model could help drive final spending decisions in the tail end of an election season. He hopes battleground campaigns consider that before the Nov. 5 General Election.